Mexico vs South Africa
The waiting is finally over, folks, and after weeks and months of speculation, planning, predictions, and the excitement growing day by day, the World Cup 2026 kicks off on Thursday when Mexico vs. South Africa hits our screens worldwide.
Co-hosts Mexico, managed by Javier Aguirre, will be backed by a passionate crowd at the 88,000-capacity Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, the scene of the 1970 World Cup final, and Hugo Broos’ South Africa will need nerves of steel at 2 pm US Central Time in two days.
This opener is a repeat of the 2010 curtain-raiser when South Africa were hosts. The match ended in a 1-1 draw at the Soccer City Stadium, but the latest World Cup 2026 betting odds say the Bafana Bafana have a mountain to climb to match that result on Thursday.
Talking Points
Captain Alvarez aiming for a century
Aguirre, in his third stint as Mexico boss, has a few decisions to make before Thursday with a strong squad to select from, and there is no guarantee we will see captain Edson Alvarez in the starting lineup. Alvarez was benched in favour of Cruz Azul’s Erik Lira for the 5-1 win over Serbia on Friday.
Now playing at Fenerbahce in the Turkish league, the former West Ham star is a defensive midfield lynchpin with superb vision and a biting tackle, and Alvarez has 98 international caps to his name, scoring seven goals along the way. And while Lira is more than capable in the role, I think Aguirre will start with his captain on Thursday.
Former Fulham striker Raul Jimenez, released by the Cottagers on Monday, will lead the line for El Tri. He scored against Serbia and is a good bet to improve on his 45 goals in 124 internationals, while the defence will be marshalled by the 6’5” Cesar Montes, who skippered El Tri in the absence of Alvarez against the Serbs last Friday.
The Mexico boss does have a call to make in his last line of defence. 40-year-old legend Guillermo Ochoa has been called up to the squad, but Raul Rangel is favourite to take the gloves.
Can Foster fire for South Africa?
This is Bafana Bafana’s first appearance at the World Cup finals in 16 years, and there will be a weight of expectation on the shoulders of their stars when the tournament kicks off. I expect the World Cup 2026 highlights to be dominated by the expectant hosts, but South Africa have a settled team which is used to competition having competed together at the African Cup of Nations, while Mexico have been playing friendlies over the past 12 months.
Burnley forward Lyle Foster scored in a warm-up against Jamaica on Saturday, and he’s South Africa’s best chance of a goal against Mexico. The 26-year-old has struggled at Turf Moor, but he has serious pace and impressive work rate, strong in running, and hard to knock off the ball.
But he needs to keep his head. Foster can be wound up by opponents and has missed chances he should have scored in the English league. But when he is on his game, he is unstoppable and has a beautiful shot on him.
Foster will get his service from lively left winger Tshepang Moremi, while midfield ace Teboho Mokoena is a player to watch. He was involved in a scandal during qualifying when he played a match while suspended. But with nine goals in 51 internationals, Mokoena is a key man.
History
Mexico are making their 18th attempt at the World Cup finals, with their best efforts so far being quarter-finals in 1970 and 1986. This is South Africa’s fourth appearance at a World Cup, and the first since 2010, and they are yet to escape the group stages.
El Tri are yet to beat South Africa, though the two teams have only met twice. Bafana Bafana won 2-1 when they met in 2005, and the two nations played out that 1-1 draw at the 2010 World Cup.
In terms of recent form, Mexico have won six and drawn two this calendar year, beating Serbia last Friday, while South Africa are yet to pick up a win in 2026, drawing three and losing two, with a 1-1 draw with Jamaica last time out on Saturday.
Betting Tip
Mexico are at SBOTOP odds of 1.38 to start their tournament with a win, with South Africa at 8.45 and a draw priced at 4.20. 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at odds of 5.25, but I suspect El Tri will win more comfortably.
And for an alternative bet, Over 2.50 is priced at 2.10, and my preferred scoreline is 3-0 to Mexico at odds of 8.45.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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