Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Following his team’s 1-1 draw at Bournemouth on Saturday afternoon, Aston Villa’s astute Spanish manager Unai Emery was quick to remind the media that his team should not be considered title contenders.
Of course, he is quite right. Financial constraints have seen to that.
But the sheer fact it has even been mooted in recent months – and let’s not forget Emery has guided his team to victories over the top two (Arsenal and Manchester City) this season – speaks volumes for the superb job the Spaniard is overseeing.
As his charges welcome Brighton to Villa Park on Wednesday night, we should also be reminded that it is Villa who sit in third place in the table, above a host of big-spending Premier League giants – including big-spending Liverpool who they are eight points clear of with 13 league games to go.
They can stay there too and, after surprise home defeats to Everton and Brentford, will be hopeful of returning to winning ways.
Talking Points
This SBOTOP scribe would very much like to be proved wrong when he says that he feels Brighton’s bubble may just have burst.
That may seem extremely misguided given they have already defeated (and held) Manchester City and Chelsea this season and only last month knocked Manchester United out of the FA Cup at Old Trafford.
Yet my inner belief says they cannot continue to successfully go toe-to-toe with the big boys when they lose key players on an annual basis.
Last summer it was Joao Pedro, two years before that Moises Caicedo, Robert Sanchez and Alexis Mac Allister and I could go on.
They have also seen no fewer than nine members of staff leave for Chelsea in recent years.
The upshot is that young manager Fabian Hurzeler is doing a decent job in the circumstances, far better than I ever anticipated, but is it really sustainable?
After their 1-0 home defeat to local rivals Crystal Palace on Sunday, some Brighton fans even chanted “you don’t know what you’re doing” in the direction of the 32 year-old as he made his way off the pitch.
Things need to turn around quickly as the 2-0 victory over Burnley last month stands as Brighton’s sole victory in their latest 12 league matches – only relegation certs Burnley and Wolves have picked up fewer points in that time.
For Villa, while the loss of key men to injuries in recent weeks has been an undoubted blow – including captain John McGinn to a knee injury and Boubacar Kamara who will miss the rest of the campaign – they do have a stronger string than their visitors with more potential matchwinners and I expect them to emerge victorious.
History
The first ever meeting between these two clubs was a big one as silverware was at stake.
The venue was Stamford Bridge, the occasion of the 1910 Charity Shield, and it was Brighton (southern league champions) who won 1-0 against Villa (the English league champions).
Much changed in the subsequent years and the sides never actually met in the top flight until August 1979 when goals from Allan Evans (penalty) and Tony Morley earned the home team a 2-1 win at Villa Park.
This fixture last season was an exciting four goal contest as the sides shared four goals.
Simon Adingra put the Seagulls ahead before goals either side of half-time from Ollie Watkins (penalty) and Morgan Rogers put Villa in front.
Brighton earned a point though with nine minutes remaining through Tariq Lamptey.
If that was exciting, it didn’t compare to this season’s seven goal thriller on the south coast.
Villa edged the contest thanks to a double from Watkins and one apiece from Amadou Onana and Donyell Malen who netted the winner within a minute of coming on.
Brighton, who led 2-0 after half an hour, had found the net via a Jan Paul Van Hecke double and an own goal.
They have actually only beaten Villa once in their last 10 meetings, a league game on their own turf in May two years ago when Pedro netted the only goal.
Overall, Villa have 20 successes to Brighton’s six with a further 10 draws.
Betting Tip
Villa are clear favourites and can be backed 1X2 @ 1.94 and Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.21.
Brighton are adrift of that, both 1X2 @ 3.50 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 2.25 – both very tasty bets.
A draw will see a pay out of @ 3.34, while a repeat of the corresponding fixture last term is on offer @ 14.00 with Correct Score 2-2.
The truth is that both these sides are somewhat lacking in confidence at the moment, although I do think there will be goals and I am half tempted by any of over 3.00 goals @ 2.31, total goal 0-1 @ 3.46, 2-3 @ 2.01 and 4-6 @ 3.04 as attractive options.
I am though going for Villa to take charge of this one and consolidate third place so my ** tip is Half Time Full Time Home Home @ 2.78.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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