World Cup 2026: La Celeste Out to Seal Stateside Spot

Uruguay vs Peru

I’ve not encountered much of Peru during my sports writing adventures.

This SBOTOP scribe recalls them being thrashed by Brazil at the 2019 Copa America but there haven’t been too many other times when I’ve reported on them in action.

However, World Cup 2026 qualifying provides such an opportunity and, with their next opponents Uruguay on the cusp of reaching a fifth straight World Cup, begs the question, can lightning strike twice?

 

Talking Points

I ask because, while it has been a largely miserable campaign for the Peruvians who are one place off the bottom of the CONMEBOL standings, they delivered some memorable World Cup qualifying 2025 highlights 11 months ago – against the Uruguayans.

That was when Miguel Araujo scored the only goal in Lima to spark jubilant scenes among the home faithful.

The problem for Peru, though, is they have only won once since and now know they must secure victory in both of their final two qualifiers to have any chance of taking a play-off spot. Manager Oscar Ibanez also needs Bolivia and Venezuela to lose both of their last two qualifiers too so leapfrogging them is highly unlikely.

For a spell, Uruguay’s spot at next summer’s World Cup was in doubt as Marcelo Bielsa’s men embarked on a four match winless run.

Yet with six spaces up for grabs from South America, you have to be pretty below par not to make it.

Uruguay, who have a promising nucleus of talent from their under 20 world championship side of two years ago, will have Federico Valverde and Darwin Nunez back in their side for this encounter, although they will have to make do without experienced defender Jose Gimenez and wide man Maximiliano Araujo due to injury.

Peru have no such mixed team news with both Paolo Guerrero (who has scored a few against La Celeste) and Gianluca Lapadula absent from their forward line, along with pacy winger Andre Carrillo.

After naming his squad, Ibanez then had to deal with another two absentees, as Edison Flores and Alex Valera both withdrew.

All in all, it’s been far from ideal preparation for a nation which has failed to score in any of their eight away matches in qualifying so far.

It appears hugely improbable anything will change at this stage which is why I cannot see beyond a convincing home triumph.

 

History

My word, I didn’t realise what a long established history these two nations have against each other.

A total of 72 matches, which stretch back to 1927, has resulted in 39 Uruguay successes, 18 Peru victories and 15 draws.

It wasn’t until their sixth meeting, some 12 years later, that Peru managed to avoid defeat as they won a Copa America clash – a 2-1 victory in Lima courtesy of first half goals from Jorge Alcalde and Victor Bielich. Roberto Porta replied for Uruguay who were 4-0 winners in their inaugural meeting (also in the Copa) when Antonio Sacco scored twice.

Uruguay would go on to become the first ever world champions at the 1930 World Cup and, en route, a Hector Castro goal settled a group stage clash.

That remains the only time they have met in the actual tournament as predominantly it has been in qualifying or the Copa.

Their last meeting on Uruguay turf was a World Cup qualifier in March three years ago when Giorgian de Arrascaeta netted the only goal in Montevideo.

Their qualifier in October last year added to a memorable Copa America quarter-final six years ago when Peru triumphed against La Celeste on penalties in a dramatic quarter-final.

 

Betting Tip

Considering the sides are separated by 26 places in the FIFA world rankings, there perhaps should be no surprise that Uruguay are expected to prevail.

They are on offer with our World Cup qualifying 2025 betting odds both 1X2 @ 1.27 and Asian Handicap -1.50 @ 2.03. Peru, meanwhile, are out as far adrift as 1X2 @ 8.40 and Asian Handicap +1.25 @ 2.03.

If Peru were to repeat their 1-0 success from last year, then a hefty pay day awaits with Correct Score 0-1 paying out @ 20.00.

Given you have to go back more than 20 years to the last time they won on Uruguayan soil, that could be considered ambitious but a 1X2 Draw @ 4.21 offer excellent value.

Given Peru are one place off the bottom of the qualifying standings and Uruguay need to win to keep their qualification bid on course, I can only foresee a home triumph.

   

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